WORLD CUP DRAW ANALYSIS

 

 

The draw has been done. The coaches know which oppisition teams to scout and the fans know which tickets and flights to book. Question then becomes, what is actually going to happen once everyone hits Germany. The short answer is, a lot of high quality football is going to be played. For the long answer, keep reading.

The very first match of the entire tournament is going to be between Germany and Costa Rica. A decent enough starter from a neutral stand point...and then you see that Group A is completed by Poland and Ecuador and you realise that the hosts are very jammy indeed. Despite the fact that they can no longer honestly count themselves amongst the world elite(they have Michael Ballack and Oliver Kahn and Jurgen Klinsman only as their gaffer rather than 90s vintage assasin) the Germans will certainly top this group. So who gets second? Well Ecuador look like the group's punchbag which means that the Costa Rica vs Poland match will have a place in the knockout stages riding on it...and I reckon that it'll be the Latin Americans who'll have the edge classwise.

Group B is England's turf and their assignments are first Paraguay, then Trinidad and Tobago, then Sweden. All should give us good matches and we haven't beaten Sweden since 1968. Having said that, we should get six points out of our first two games so the Sweden match ought not be an issue so we should just pick up a draw from there and top the group. Anything less and Sven can expect his head to be rolling. Second place is a bit trickier...if I'm going to be harsh I'm going to have to first rule T+T out of the running. With all due respect to Dwight Yorke, any national side that needs to call up a white English half-Trini winger who plays for Port Vale(Chris Birchill) is going to hit a brick wall at this level. Sweden vs Paraquay? Sweden has Freddie Ljungberg and Henrick Larsson amongst others, Paraguay don't even have their mad goalie Jose Chilavert any more. Sweden will pick up a place in the knockout stages as a result.

Group C is going to include the main heavyweight contest in the group stage. Argentina vs Netherlands. Those are the two sides that are going to wrap this group up. I would have loved Ivory Coast to have a better chance of making the knockout stages though I'm not so bothered about Serbia getting caned. Who'll win the clash of the Titans? If Lionel Messi is as good as people are claiming, I'll give the Argies the edge.

Mexico shouldn't really have been seeded in my opinion but they're the side who still officially head up Group D. Portugal are my pick to top that group though and make up for the disaster that happened last time out. Mexico should be able to deal with Angola and Iran though and take second(having said that, Mexico vs Iran could be tight).

Italy should win group E though they will have Ghana, USA and the Czech Republic for company and three teams into one runners up spot don't go. All three of those sides are solid outfits and so I'll have to be very harsh indeed...and my instincts are telling me that the Yanks have the most solid side of the bunch, despite the fact that no individuals stand out, they're whole is likely to be more than the sum of their parts, they haven't overtaken Mexico and become the biggest gun in North America for nothing. The Czechs did well to take care of Norway in the qualifier playoffs but their better players are getting on a bit. Ghana have Michael Essien and their fair share of fire...but will that be enough? Don't think so, like Ivory Coast, they could have done with an easier draw.(no this will not be Africa's year).

Group F is similar to E. Brazil will run the show leaving Croatia, Australia and Japan to scrabble for second. Thinking things over...Croatia have had an overhaul since 2002 and their squad may be too green to do much. Japan vs Australia? Both are heavyweights in their respective parts of the world but even on home turf last time out, Japan ultimately dissapointed for me by only making round two when I had them down to make the quarters. I'll go with Oz to take second but this is the prediction that's most likely to be wrong.

The French have to be the luckiest side in the competition. Group G is completed by Switzerland, South Korea and Togo all of which Zidane, Henry and crew should be able to rumble on through(assuming they don't suddenly get their brains sucked out like last time). As for second place, Togo are just going to get themselves steamrollered so it's going to be down to Switzerland vs South Korea. Switzerland are one of Europe's plainer sides, Korea are one of Asia's classier ones and with Dick Advocaat now running things, I'll put the Koreans in the knockout stages.

Spain and Ukraine are likely to wrap up Group H between them, the first timers having gotten lucky with drawing Saudi Arabia and Tunisia, having side that, they've got Andrei Shevchenko, maybe they deserve a bit of luck. It's the Spanish who I still think have to overall talent to top this group though.

So, the group stages over, what's going to happen in the knockout stages?

Second Round:

Germany vs Sweden: This'll be a tight match but the home crowd will give Germany the edge here.

Argentina vs Mexico: The Argies should be able to deal with this one smoothly

England vs Costa Rica: Like our Group B opponents, the Costa Ricans will give England a solid match but the Three Lions will roar them away.

Portugal vs Netherlands: Prospective tie of the round from a neutral perspective, will probably go to Extra time, Dutch will probably win by the odd goal.

Italy vs Australia: The Aussies will do what they can but get thrown on the barbie.

France vs Ukraine: The former Soviet Republic won't be able to hide behind Shevchenko here.

Brazil vs USA: Rematch of a clash at this stage in 1994. The Yanks are better than they were back then but the result's going to be the same. Brazil win.

Spain vs South Korea: Spain are going to be out for payback after getting KOd by the Koreans in the '02 quarter finals. Realistically too close to call but I'll give it to Spain.

Quarter finals:

Germany vs Argentina: Rematch of the '86 and '90 finals(to an extent) but nowhere near as close. The Germans would get caned.

France vs Italy: Italy will be looking for payback after France beat them at this stage in '98. It would depend on which France side turned up but Italy have been off the pace recently and so I'd give this one to Les Bleus.

England vs Netherlands: It would be England's first grade A opposition in this tournament and I reckon we'd be ready for it. I wouldn't expect a re-enactment of the classic 4-1 from Euro 96 but I would expect a classic in it's own right, the Dutch to go bye bye and England to go to the World Cup semis for the first time since 1990.

Brazil vs Spain: Brazil all the way here.

Semi finals:

Argentina vs France: Hmmm...fireworks ahoy and the only thing that's allowing me to call this game to any extent would be the assuption of the Argies having an easier time of things in their quarter final, meaning more energy than the French. Therefore Argie win.

England vs Brazil: I would rather have this match as the final but tournament mechanics makes that impossible. All I do know is that if both sides are on top form, they'd produce the best match of the tournament. Only question remains, who'd win and as much as I'd love England to do get to the World Cup finnal for the first time since 1966, I still feel this sense that I'd be too cocky by half to predict them beating the Sambaistas, so I'm not going to chance it.

Third place playoff:

France vs England: They would be an edge missing from this match, there usually is from these sort of encounters, but it'll probably be pretty solid anyway and I'll go for England raising themselves to take thiord place and claim an edge over the 1990 side.

Final:

Argentina vs Brazil: An all-South American final for the first time since 1950 and the first time since the continent's big guns have faced each other in the final. Argies run out of fuel. Brazil win their sixth World Cup.

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