2010 WORLD CUP QUALIFYING - THE NEXT STAGES

 

Well, when the draw was made, I did predictions for the 2010 World Cup qualifiers. Since then a lot of stuff has happened, and in Europe the focus has been on Euro 2008. However elsewhere in the world the road to South Africa has already begun, already the early rounds have been played. Which means that despite there being over a year of qualifiers still to go, it's time to have another look at the global picture to see who still remains. Have there been any real surprises? Either way, this is when things do get serious. From this point in all the major nations will have to step up their games. There are 32 spots up for grabs and a lot of sides to get rid of still.

Well first stop is home sweet home Europe but there isn't that much to talk about. This is the last continent to get it's World Cup qualifying competition underway. The only real bit of progress since the group draw was made is that the fixtures have been worked out. England open up away to Andorra and that should be a straightforward three points but it's the next game that could prove crucial. Croatia away. If we get so much as a point out of that match given what happened in the Euro 2008 qualifiers, we'll have done well. Scotland also open with two away matches, one in Macedonia, one in Iceland. The Iceland game should be trickier but there's nothing stopping the Scots coming out of their opening double header with six points.

In Africa the first group stage has started. Twelve groups of four, top two to go through to the next stage. With two games to go, Cameroon leads Group 1 with Cape Verde still in the picture, Group 2 is tighter with Ginea edging it though the other teams(Kenya, Zimbabwe and Namibia) are still in it, Benin top Group 3 with Angola and Uganda level on points behind them, Nigeria have already won Group 4, Ghana top Group 5 but Libya are level on poinbts with them and Gabon are still in the mixer, Senegal are on course in Group 6 though Algeria and Gambia are close behind and Liberia can't be counted out yet, Ivory Coast are out in front in Group 7 with Botswana edging Mozambique and Madagascar for second, Morroco are on course in Group 8 though Rwanda are level on points with them and Ethiopia could still do something, Burkina Faso edge Group 9 with Tunisia are close behind, Mali are on course in Group 10 though the competition (Congo, Sudan and Chad) aren't dead yet, Swaziland are on course in Group 11 but only just holding off Zambia and Togo and Congo DR are on course in Group 12 though Egypt are level on points with them Malawi are still in the mixer. 8 best second place teams are currently Cape Verde, Libya, Rwanda, Tunisia, Egypt, Kenya, Angola and Algeria. Togo and South Africa could yet turn it round but assuming a sane draw I'll go for Nigeria, Cameroon, Ivory Coast, Morrocco and Ghana to go to South Africa.

In Asia we're down to ten teams in two groups of five. Group 1 features Australia, Japan, Bahrain, Uzbekistan and Qatar. Out of that bunch Australia and Japan are dead certs to head to South Africa and given that Bahrain were close to going to Germany last time, I'd expect them to make the playoff this time round. Group B is made up of South Korea, Iran, Saudi Arabia, North Korea and UAE. South Korea and definately going to South Africa though Saudi Arabia vs Iran is a close one. I'll go for Saudi having the edge. Thus it'll Bahrain vs Iran in the playoff. I may like the little rock in the Arabian Gulf but I really can't see them winning a two-legged tie vs Iran. Iran go through to an intercontinental playoff.

In North America they're down to twelve teams which are split into three groups of four with the top two going into the final group. Group A features USA, Trinidad and Tobago, Guatamala and Cuba. USA and T+T should make it through from there. Group B is Mexico. Canada, Jamaica and Honduras. Mexico should cruise to the final round but Canada vs Jamaica could be a tight run for second. I'm thinking Canada will have the edge here. Group C is Costa Rica, El Salvador, Haiti and Suriname. Can't see past Costa Rica and El Salvador here. As for the final qualifying group well it's three to go to South Africa. USA and Mexico will be two of them and Costa Rica's relatively smooth group will make them the third. Canada look like best of the rest and will face an intercontinental playoff.

The single big South American group started even before the main draw was made. It it still only six rounds of matches in though and so there's a long way to go. As it stands Paraguay, Argentina, Columbia and Chille are the teams set to go South Africa with Brazil in fifth heading for an intercontinental playoff. However even bottom side Peru could in theory qualify at this point so that doesn't mean much. More realistically, Uruguay and Ecuador could stll have something to say. Brazil will surely make it into the top four will Chille the most likely team in the current top four to slide into fifth spot and thus face an intercontinental playoff.

Then Oceania. The final group is in it's latter stages now. New Zealand top the group but haven't quite secured a place in the final playoff yet. New Caldonia are surprisingly proving themselves to be best of the rest by some distance. However Fiji have a game in hand over them and theoretically could pull a phoenix to take second place. However the safe bet says that it'll be New Zealand vs New Caledonia in the final playoff tie. From there, well the fact that the top of the final group is so close suggests that this could turn out to be a pretty tight tie. However I suspect that the Kiwis have a better brand of player available and they'll be the ones going to the intercontinental playoffs.

So, that would leave two intercontinental playoff spots still to tidy up. First up is the North America vs South America tie which'll probably be between Canada and Chille. That would be seriously tight but despite the Chileans having some young players coming though I'm wondering if the Canadians might be able to build on a good '07 Gold Cup showing and reach South Africa. The other tie will be the Asia vs Oceania match up and that'll probably be between Iran and New Zealand. Well if New Zealand are the best side the OFC as it stands can produce then the whole confederation needs a reality check and possibly a full merging with the AFC. Iran to win that one.

So, here's the list of team I currently think will be in South Africa come 2010.

South Africa

Portugal

Greece

Czech Republic

Germany

Spain

Croatia

France

Italy

Netherlands

Nigeria

Ghana

Ivory Coast

Cameroon

Morrocco

Saudi Arabia

Australia

Japan

South Korea

USA

Mexico

Costa Rica

Brazil

Argentina

Columbia

Paraguay

England

Russia

Turkey

Romania

Canada

Iran

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